4.2.4Active indicatorCountry Preparedness for the Transition to Net Zero

Indicator 4.2.4 · Economics

Country Preparedness for the Transition to Net Zero

The transition to a net-zero economy can deliver major benefits for health, but poorly managed transitions can create economic and social disruption that can undermine wellbeing and deepen inequalities. Countries differ in both their exposure to these transition risks and their capacity to manage and adapt to the changes required. This indicator tracks countries’ preparedness for the transition to a net-zero economy, considering both their resilience and vulnerability to transition risks.

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Headline finding

Global preparedness for the transition to a net-zero economy fell from 0.58 in 2023 to 0.38 in 2025, a 34% decline, driven primarily by weakening resilience across all HDI groups. Between 2023 and 2025, resilience fell by 30% in Very High-HDI countries, 43% in High-HDI countries, 45% in Medium-HDI countries, and 55% in Low-HDI countries.

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Figure 1

Net-Zero Transition Preparedness

Country-level scores for resilience, lack of vulnerability, and preparedness for the transition to net zero from 2023 to 2025, by individual country, Human Development Index (HDI) group, World Health Organization (WHO) region, and Lancet Countdown region. Scores range from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating greater resilience, lower vulnerability, or greater preparedness for the net-zero transition.

About this indicator

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About this indicator

Description

This indicator assesses countries’ transition risk through a complex index that incorporates 25 sub-indicators that monitor institutional performance (e.g., absence of political violence and terrorism, governmental effectiveness), economic situation (e.g.: macroeconomic stability, availability of finance for the transition, GNI per capita), societal (e.g.: proportion of wage income earned in highly exposed sectors, human capital), and technological factors (e.g., technology absorption, carbon intensity of manufacturing), weighted to derive a final preparedness score ranging from 0 and 1.

Authors

Dr Pu Yang, Dr Denitsa Angelova, Prof. Nadia Ameli, Dr Lucia Murgia

Data downloads

Caveats

The indicator in its current form does not reflect opportunities arising from the low-carbon transition, particularly those emerging from access to non-renewable resources vital to the transition, such as critical minerals. It also overlooks different aspects of access to renewable energy sources such as security, reliability, and flexibility. This omission is primarily attributed to the lack of reliable data.

Data sources

  1. Composite indicators are based on numerous input factors, including:
  2. IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), 2026 Used for the inflation rate and average consumer prices.
  3. TheGlobalEconomy.com, 2026 Sovereign credit ratings by country, incorporating ratings from Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P.
  4. IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, 2025
  5. World Intellectual Property Organization, 2025
  6. Global Innovation Index 2025: Innovation at a Crossroads—Unlocking the Promise of Social Entrepreneurship.
  7. World Bank Business Ready (B-READY), 2025, B-READY Methodology Handbook: Final Second Edition.
  8. World Bank GovTech Maturity Index (GTMI), 2025
  9. GovTech Maturity Index 2025: Tracking Public Sector Digital Transformation Worldwide.
  10. BloombergNEF, 2025
  11. Energy Transition Investment Trends. World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2026
  12. The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2026 Produced by the Harvard Growth Lab and MIT Growth Lab.
  13. Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank, 2025
  14. Changing Wealth of Nations Database, World Bank, 2025
  15. Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, European Commission, 2024
  16. Global Trade Analysis Project, 2026
  17. Our World in Data, 2024
  18. Gini Coefficient: World Inequality Database vs. World Bank.
  19. World Inequality Database and World Bank, 2024