4.1.3Active indicatorLoss of Earnings from Heat-Related Labour Capacity Reduction
4.1The economic impact of climate change and its mitigation
4.2The transition to net zero carbon, health-supporting economies
4.3Financial transitions for a healthy future
Indicator 4.1.3 · Economics
Loss of Earnings from Heat-Related Labour Capacity Reduction
Heat Exposure can reduce people’s capacity to work safely and productively, particularly in physically demanding and outdoor occupations, or where workers don’t have access to cooling. The resulting loss of earnings can undermine livelihoods, food security, access to healthcare, and the socioeconomic conditions which affect health outcomes. This indicator estimates potential income losses from heat-related reductions in labour capacity
Headline finding
The global potential income loss from labour capacity reduction due to extreme heat was US$ 1.07 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 0.91% of global GDP. The agricultural sector was most affected, with 38% of all global losses, and an average of 78% and 65% of the potential losses in Low and Medium HDI countries, respectively.
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Figure 1
Potential Loss of Earnings Due to Heat-Related Reduction in Labour Capacity
Potential earnings lost due to heat-related labour capacity loss, in total and by employment sector (agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and services), from 1990 to 2025, by country, Human Development Index (HDI) group, WHO region, Lancet Countdown (LC) region, and globally. Results can be viewed as total earnings lost (2025 US$ billions) or as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP).
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About this indicator
Description
This indicator combines data from indicator 1.1.3 on heat-related labour capacity loss, in terms of work hours lost (WHLs), at country scale across four sectors (services, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture) with data on average earnings per hour per country, sector, and year. The total potential lost earnings are expressed as a percentage of the country's GDP in each relevant year. GDP per capita was added as a comparator metric for identifying suitable wage substitutes.
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Caveats
Results reflect potential loss of earnings in formal paid sectors, rather than actual loss, and do not include informal and unpaid labour that is significant in many countries. Such activites could include domestic work which disproportionately falls on women and small-scale agriculture. There are data gaps in the International Labour Organization Earnings and Labour Income dataset for the years studied for each country and thus several assumptions were incorporated in order to fill these data gaps. The indicator does not measure time off work actually taken.
Data sources
- Potential working hours lost data from indicator 1.1.3.
- International Labour Organization (ILO) International Statistics Database, 2025. ILO.
- International Finance Statistics, 2025. International Monetary Fund.
- World Economic Outlook Databases, 2024. International Monetary Fund.
- Country and Lending Groups, 2025. World Bank.