3.3.2Active indicatorDiet and Health Co-Benefits

Indicator 3.3.2 · Mitigation

Diet and Health Co-Benefits

Unhealthy diets are a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases and premature death worldwide, while many unhealthy dietary patterns are also associated with high greenhouse gas emissions. Shifting towards healthier, more plant-based and less carbon-intensive diets can improve health while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This indicator tracks deaths associated with unhealthy diets.

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Headline finding

Between 2016 and 2023, deaths attributable to unhealthy diets increased by 3%, from 139 to 144 deaths per 100,000 people. Deaths associated with high consumption of red and processed meat and dairy products rose by 17%, from 18 to 21 deaths per 100,000.

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Figure 1

Deaths Attributable to Unhealthy Diets

Deaths attributable to unhealthy diets in 2016 and 2023, linked to high consumption of red meat, processed meat, and dairy products and low consumption of nutritious plant-based foods, including whole grains, vegetables, fruits, and legumes. Results are available in two measures: total deaths attributable to unhealthy diets and deaths attributable to unhealthy diets per 100,000 population.

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Figure 2

Deaths Attributable to Unhealthy Diets

Deaths attributable to diet-related risks across all food groups in 2016 and 2023. Results are available as total attributable deaths and deaths attributable to unhealthy diets per 100,000 population, for individual countries, Human Development Index (HDI) groups, WHO regions, and Lancet Countdown regions.

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About this indicator

Description

This indicator is based on a comparative risk assessment of diet and weight-related diseases using risk-disease relationships from meta-analyses of epidemiological cohort studies, updated data on food intake, body weight, and population numbers, and projections of cause-specific mortality. Baseline food consumption was estimated by adopting estimates of food availability from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' food balance sheets, linking food consumption data disaggregated by sex and age and adjusted for food waste at point of consumption to estimate exposure.

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Caveats

In this comparative risk assessment, relative risk factors from nutritional epidemiology were used, acknowledging limitations such as small effect sizes, measurement errors, and potential residual confounding. Risk-disease relationships were assumed to be causal, supported by dose-response meta-analyses, biological plausibility, and experimental evidence. Associations that lost significance in fully adjusted models, particularly for milk and fish intake, were omitted. Evidence quality for all included risk-disease pairs was rated moderate or high (NutriGrade), with ten of twelve associations considered probable or convincing by expert groups. Exposure data were derived from food availability estimates adjusted for consumption waste, providing a comparable proxy across countries and reflecting regional energy intake differences, while avoiding underreporting issues inherent to dietary surveys.

Data sources

  1. Food consumption data: Food availability data adjusted for food wasted at the point of consumption, and for the energy requirements to sustain measured levels of body weight, height, and physical activity.
  2. Weight estimates: Baseline data from pooled analysis of measurement studies differentiated by sex and age with global coverage.
  3. Relative risk estimates: Adopted from meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. The certainty of evidence for the risk-disease associations were rated as moderate to high by NutriGrade.
  4. Mortality and population data: Adopted from the Global Burden of Disease project by country, sex, and age group.